Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines of fury because the 2016 Emmy nominations are in. By and large, the Television Academy did a decent job with nominations this time around. This year #EmmysAreFairlyDiverse with a number of people of color nominated across the performing categories. Where the Emmys do falter is that they traditionally reward familiar faces, even after those performers and shows are past their worthiness.
Once again, Oohlo Labs brings you analysis and predictions about this year’s Emmy nominations:
Better Call Saul
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Surprise inclusion: Mr. Robot got a lot of love in the drama category. I’m surprised the voters have that good a memory.
Who got robbed: The big four networks, with an all cable/streaming pack of nominees. You’d think a popular show like Scandal or How to Get Away with Murder would crack the list.
Odds-on favorite: With its revival season, Game of Thrones will be a popular favorite, but voting patterns point toward an AMC show, so Better Call Saul it is.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Kyle Chandler, Bloodline
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Surprise inclusion: Everyone but Malek and Rhys are regular nominees, so the fact that these guys cracked the list is pretty impressive …
Who got robbed: … considering another Emmy regular, Damian Lewis, was out there for his work on Billions.
Odds-on favorite: Seeing Jimmy McGill’s battle with his brother and his transformation into Saul Goodman is going to be too good for the voters to pass up this year.
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Danes, Homeland
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Keri Russell, The Americans
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Surprise inclusion: Danes, because didn’t we all agree to stop watching Homeland after the Brody storyline was resolved? (Cindy says NO. Not while Rupert Friend is still around.)
Who got robbed: As we’ve said previously, Krysten Ritter’s performance on Jessica Jones, while polarizing to some, was truly deserving of a nomination.
Odds-on favorite: Davis will be one of network TV’s few wins on Emmy night.
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan
Surprise inclusion: While we all love Dinklage’s Tyrion Lannister, he really didn’t do much this season.
Who got robbed: During Homeland’s up-and-down run as a series, Mandy Patinkin’s Saul has been rock-solid consistent, compelling, and perpetually worthy of award consideration (Cindy’s note: Don’t even get me started; HOW is Outlander‘s Tobias Menzies not a nominee? Madness, that’s how. Ditto, Homeland‘s Rupert Friend).
Odds-on favorite: Banks, Mendelsohn, and Harrington are all worthy of winning, which means the award will probably go to Voight … again.
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones
Maura Tierney, The Affair
Constance Zimmer, UnREAL
Surprise inclusion: If you’d guessed which of the Stark daughters would get a nomination this year, Arya would have been a distant second. Williams did get a lot of screen time and made the most of it.
Who got robbed: Rhea Seehorn was fantastic on Better Call Saul this season. Her exclusion is one of the bigger snubs of the year and, obviously, Sophie Turner’s name belongs on that list (Cindy’s note: Outlander‘s Caitriona Balfe should have been a lock for a nomination).
Odds-on favorite: The Thrones trio will split the vote, giving Tierney the win.
Master of None
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Surprise inclusion: Although it was praised by critics when it was released, it is a shocking to see Master of None get a nomination, which bumped Big Bang Theory out of a slot.
Who got robbed: With the inclusion of Jason Sudeikis to its cast this season, Last Man on Earth was consistently one of the best watches every week.
Odds-on favorite: Transparent, hands down.
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Will Forte, Last Man on Earth
William H. Macy, Shameless
Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Surprise inclusion: After being ignored (along with the rest of the cast) on Parks and Recreation, seeing Ansari’s name on the list was a pleasant surprise.
Who got robbed: It feels like the first time in, like, forever that a member of Modern Family or Big Bang Theory didn’t get nominated. I’m sure somebody is upset about that.
Odds-on favorite: It’s Tambor’s to lose, without question.
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Laurie Metcalf, Getting On
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
Surprise inclusion: Tomlin was a regular on Laugh-In, so scoring a nomination for a show on a streaming service is a minor miracle.
Who got robbed: In a snub that we here at the Labs called, Rachel Bloom’s work on Crazy Ex-Girlfriend won her a Golden Globe and should have been enough for an Emmy nomination.
Odds-on favorite: Remember New Adventures of Old Christine? Louis-Dreyfus won an Emmy for that. Emmy voters love, love, love, love, LOVE them some JL-D.
Supporting Actor in a Comedy
Louie Anderson, Baskets
Keegan-Michael Key, Key & Peele
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Matt Walsh, Veep
Tony Hale, Veep
Surprise inclusion: Although he is the guy who literally makes Kimmy Schmidt sing, Burgess’ inclusion is a little surprising.
Who got robbed: Thanks to cast changes and maternity leave, Lamorne Morris’ Winston finally got some of the spotlight on New Girl. He was the glue that held that show together last season.
Odds-on favorite: The heart says Anderson, but the head says Hale.
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Niecy Nash, Getting On
Allison Janney, Mom
Kate McKinnon, SNL
Judith Light, Transparent
Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Surprise inclusion: The best highlights of SNL this year came when they caffeinated McKinnon up and just sent her out to be weird. Happy to see the Emmy voters value that.
Who got robbed: Master of None does not work without Ansari’s effortless chemistry with Noël Wells. She was simultaneously hilarious and heartbreaking while turning in some of the best performances on the series and in the TV season.
Odds-on favorite: Emmy voters love Janney almost as much as Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
The Night Manager
The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Surprise inclusion: American Crime has the least wow factor of any of the nominated shows.
Who got robbed: This is the first time in a while some version of American Horror Story hasn’t been nominated.
Odds-on favorite: In a year when race is on everybody’s mind, The People v. O.J. will resonate.
Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Bryan Cranston, All the Way
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock
Idris Elba, Luther
Cuba Gooding, Jr., The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager
Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Surprise inclusion: While Cumberbatch is a brilliant Sherlock, this year’s installment was rather meh.
Who got robbed: Oscar Isaac had a great year and Show Me a Hero was a big part of that.
Odds-on favorite: Vance’s Johnnie Cochrane was electric and will crush the competition.
Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill
Sarah Paulson, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Lili Taylor, American Crime
Kerry Washington, Confirmation
Surprise inclusion: Better known by theater lovers than TV watchers, McDonald’s role in the HBO film was good, but the movie itself didn’t exactly set the world on fire.
Who got robbed: No real complaints here.
Odds-on favorite: This one belonged to Dunst for a hot minute, but then Paulson’s Marcia Clark stepped in and dropped the mic.
Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Jesse Plemons, Fargo
Bokeem Woodbine, Fargo
Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
Sterling K. Brown, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
David Schwimmer, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
John Travolta, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Surprise inclusion: Schwimmer, because I could put a white streak in my hair and say the word “juice” 76 times.
Who got robbed: The exclusion of Zahn McClarnon’s Hanzee Dent makes everyone here at the Labs sad and a little angry.
Odds-on favorite: As much as we are loathe to say it, Travolta.
Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Melissa Leo, All the Way
Regina King, American Crime
Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Hotel
Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Hotel
Jean Smart, Fargo
Olivia Colman, The Night Manager
Surprise inclusion: This category went pretty well by the numbers.
Who got robbed: Since she also won a Golden Globe, Lady Gaga, I guess.
Odds-on favorite: It’s going to be a Paulson sweep, all the way.